Judging be the e-mails and calls to local sports talk radio shows as well as tweets by fellow Missouri State fans, I’m a lot less interested in this whole bubble watch and bracketology thing. I’ve paid as little attention to it as possible. Spoiler Alert: The Bears are highly, highly unlikely to be included in the 2011 NCAA Men’s Basketball National Championship Tournament when the bracket is announced in a couple of hours.
I’m not saying they shouldn’t be, just that they won’t. The highly-trusted Joe Lunardi has said as much, so it’s likely a done deal, right? It’s not because Missouri State’s a bad team, or doesn’t have a pretty good resume. It’s because MSU is a mid-major, and the selection system seems to be pretty regularly manipulated to ensure the high majors fill the brackets.
At one time, 20 wins was the magic number as far as NCAA resumes go. But there’s MSU with 25 wins, on the outside looking in. USC has 19 wins and is assumed to be in. Then I learned that your RPI has to be low, or you won’t get in. MO State is sitting at 44. The last four in, according to Lunardi? St. Mary’s (46), Clemson (55), Virginia Tech (60) and USC (68). Missouri State owns three of the five best RPIs to be left out of the NCAA Tournament – including the No. 1 spot (21, back in 2006). We know the RPI is a hot steaming load.
Top 50 wins are important, supposedly. This, too, skews towards the big boys, who are often reluctant to schedule mid-majors in non-league play and certainly don’t want to play them on the road. The signature wins this season for Clemson and VA Tech? All of them are conference opponents. Clemson is 0-5 against the Top 50. VT is 2-4. The knock against MSU is that even though they don’t have any really bad losses, they don’t have any really good wins. The Bears lost a close one at Tennessee, a projected 10 seed, early in the year. That win may have helped boost the resume, but it’s no guarantee.
This season should sit as a learning moment for Missouri State. They’ve got 20+ wins and a good RPI. They showed an ability to win away from home. They don’t have any horrible losses. These are all good things. But there’s no marquee win. There’s no body of work against Top 50 RPI teams. The non-conference schedule strength is kinda weak – though no worse than some teams that are in. *coughMissouri’sIs297ButMissouriState’sIs195cough*
It’s time to schedule up. Pat Hill put Fresno State football on the map with an “Anyone, any time, any place” mentality. You’re going to take some lumps, but you’re also going to increase the chance of picking up a marquee win. Don’t always hold out for a home-and-home. Take some 2-for-1s. Take some neutral floor games. as Ric Flair says, “To BE the man, you’ve got to BEAT the man! Whoooo!” Go beat the man, Bears.